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赛事分析 2026.06.26

League of Ireland Premier Division: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athletic — Match Preview and Analysis

Match Information

  • Competition: League of Ireland Premier Division
  • Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick’s Athletic
  • Time: 2026-06-26 19:00 (Beijing Time)
  • Data scope: Based solely on the recent form and head-to-head data provided in the question

Recent Form of Both Teams

Bohemians

Bohemians’ record over their last 5 matches is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, indicating relatively weak overall form.

Over these last 5 matches they have scored 6 goals and conceded 11, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 goals conceded per match. The team’s attack is not entirely misfiring — they have scored in several consecutive matches — but their defensive problems are obvious: they conceded in every one of their last 5 matches, including a 1:4 defeat to Derry City.

Among their home samples, there is only one result — a 2:1 win over Drogheda United — which suggests they have some ability to pick up points at home. However, the data sample is insufficient, so their home advantage should not be overstated.

St Patrick’s Athletic

St Patrick’s Athletic’s record over their last 5 matches is 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, clearly better form than Bohemians.

Over these last 5 matches they have scored 11 goals and conceded 2, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per match. The team has been more stable at both ends recently, with big wins such as 3:0 and 5:0 as well as a low-scoring 0:0 draw with Derry City, indicating good defensive quality.

That said, among St Patrick’s Athletic’s last 5 matches the only away sample is the 0:0 draw with Derry City, so there is insufficient data on the continuity of their away attack, which requires lowering the certainty of the prediction.

Head-to-Head History

The question provides only 1 head-to-head match:

  • 2026-04-24: St Patrick’s Athletic 3:1 Bohemians

In that match St Patrick’s Athletic won 3:1 at home, showing that they hold the advantage in recent direct meetings. However, with only a single head-to-head data point, the sample is insufficient, and it cannot be directly inferred that the same scoreline will necessarily be repeated in this match.

Data Analysis

Based on recent data, St Patrick’s Athletic’s overall performance is stronger: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in their last 5 matches, with attacking and defensive efficiency also clearly better than Bohemians’. Bohemians’ biggest problem is their defence — 11 goals conceded in their last 5 matches makes a clean sheet hard to expect.

However, one cannot easily predict a big away win in this match, for three reasons:

  1. Bohemians scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, so there is at least a possibility of them finding the net at home against St Patrick’s Athletic.
  2. St Patrick’s Athletic have an insufficient away attacking sample; their only away data point is the 0:0 draw with Derry City.
  3. Although the head-to-head was a 3:1 win for St Patrick’s Athletic, that match was at St Patrick’s Athletic’s home ground, whereas home and away are reversed in this fixture.

Comparison of Adjacent Scorelines

  • 1:1 vs 1:2:
    1:1 is a possibility, since Bohemians have been able to score consistently while St Patrick’s Athletic have a relatively small away attacking sample. But St Patrick’s Athletic have been more solid defensively and more efficient in attack recently, so 1:2 is slightly more likely than 1:1.

  • 1:2 vs 2:1:
    2:1 would represent Bohemians rebounding at home and overpowering their opponents, but Bohemians have conceded too many goals in their last 5 matches and have only beaten Drogheda United recently, so the supporting evidence is insufficient. By comparison, 1:2 better matches the recent attacking and defensive gap between the two teams.

  • 1:2 vs 2:2:
    2:2 would require Bohemians to score 2 goals while St Patrick’s Athletic also maintain their attacking output. Bohemians do indeed have scoring ability, but against a St Patrick’s Athletic side conceding just 0.4 goals per match recently, scoring 2 goals would be quite difficult, so 2:2 ranks below 1:2.

  • 0:1 vs 1:2:
    0:1 reflects a narrow St Patrick’s Athletic win with a clean sheet, but Bohemians’ attack has not dried up over their last 5 matches, and the probability of them scoring 1 goal at home is not low. Therefore 1:2 is more reasonable than 0:1.

Prediction

Taking into account recent form, attacking and defensive efficiency, and the single head-to-head record, St Patrick’s Athletic are closer to the win. But considering the home/away reversal, the insufficient away attacking sample, and Bohemians’ certain scoring ability, this match leans more towards a narrow St Patrick’s Athletic win rather than a lopsided rout.

  • Predicted score: Bohemians 1:2 St Patrick’s Athletic
  • Confidence rating: 3 stars

Candidate Scoreline Ranking

  1. 1:2 — 42%
  2. 1:1 — 33%
  3. 0:1 — 25%

The above analysis is based on publicly available match data and is intended for fan reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any betting advice.